Strategist, Robeco Investment Solutions
• 5-Year outlook
5-year Expected Returns: The Stale Renaissance
We’re in both an age of enlightenment and an age of turmoil. The progression embodied in artificial intelligence is being met with the regression of incoherent and threatening policies from the US. That’s why we’ve called this year’s edition of Expected Returns ‘The Stale Renaissance’ to reflect this paradox.
Authors
Head of Solutions Research
Top keywords
The 15th edition of our five-year outlook draws parallels with the time of Leonardo da Vinci, when the renaissance of his era was also a time of intense political turmoil. Key insights include the potential power of AI amid a decline in US exceptionalism and its consequences for global growth, the persistence of inflation above target, and likely future central bank policies to tackle this.
The 134-page outlook makes forecasts for the likely returns of all the major asset classes. We offer our usual bull, bear and base cases for future economic development, all of which depend to some degree on the US geopolitical landscape.
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Expected Returns 2026 - 2030
Important information
The contents of this document have not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission ("SFC") in Hong Kong. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. This document has been distributed by Robeco Hong Kong Limited (‘Robeco’). Robeco is regulated by the SFC in Hong Kong. This document has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the recipient and is for information purposes only. Any reproduction or distribution of this documentation, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Robeco, is prohibited. By accepting this documentation, the recipient agrees to the foregoing This document is intended to provide the reader with information on Robeco’s specific capabilities, but does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell certain securities or investment products. Investment decisions should only be based on the relevant prospectus and on thorough financial, fiscal and legal advice. Please refer to the relevant offering documents for details including the risk factors before making any investment decisions. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable. This document is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Investment Involves risks. Historical returns are provided for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect Robeco’s expectations for the future. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance.
